Here's me, 24 hours ago:
As bad as that half was against Germany, Berhalter otherwise hasn't put a foot wrong in his play for the US over the last year. (Don't believe me? His Sams Army ratings from 5/1/2005 to today are 5.72, 5.87, 7.14, 5.69 and 5.49; pretty good for a defender.) He's been in form for his club, who are in line for promotion. He's a veteran of the 2002 campaign. He also is based in Germany and has played in all these venues. Unless an injury happens, I'm pretty sure Berhalter is going.
Damn, that was eloquent, wasn't it? And a fine use of evidence to strengthen a thesis statement. Only problem is that it was ass-wrong. The US squad for Germany was announced, and Berhalter isn't on it:
Goalkeepers: Kasey Keller (Borussia Monchengladbach), Tim Howard (Manchester United), Marcus Hahnemann (Reading)
Defenders: Carlos Bocanegra (Fulham), Steve Cherundolo (Hannover 96), Jimmy Conrad (Kansas City), Cory Gibbs (ADO den Haag), Frankie Hejduk (Columbus), Eddie Lewis (Leeds United), Oguchi Onyewu (Standard de Liege), Eddie Pope (Real Salt Lake).
Midfielders: DaMarcus Beasley (PSV Eindhoven), Bobby Convey (Reading), Clint Dempsey (New England), Landon Donovan (Los Angeles), Pablo Mastroeni (Colorado), John O'Brien (Chivas USA), Ben Olsen (D.C. United), Claudio Reyna (Manchester City)
Forwards: Brian Ching (Houston), Eddie Johnson (Kansas City), Brian McBride (Fulham), Josh Wolff (Kansas City).
In Berhalter's place, clearly, is Jimmy Conrad. The logic here is twofold, I think. First off, Conrad played a lot of games for the US earlier in the year, and developed a nice partnership with Eddie Pope. Secondly, Conrad is right footed. Arena already has two left-footed center backs who can play left back in a pinch (Bocanegra and Gibbs), while Conrad can be a right back if necessary. I'm surprised, but I'm not really disappointed.
However, the biggest surprise is Ching for Twellman, and I think this decision is wrong. The logic, I suppose, is Ching's MLS form, coupled with his understanding with Landon Donovan, and the problems his size might cause. But Twellman has fared far better than Ching for the US this year, and presents a different kind of problem for defenses: he chases every ball down, harries defenders and throws himself at even the quarter chances. My MLS team is the Revolution, so I'm biased, but I really think Twellman is the better choice.
In any case, let us not forget that there is still a long way to go here. There's one last set of club games, as well as a month of preparation and training. In 2002, we had a player injured in mid-May, after which his replacement got injured, after which his replacement got injured, whereupon Arena just gave up. It's quite possible that one or more reserves could get called up between now and June.
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