The final countdown

Doo-doo-DOOO-doo. Doo-doo-DOOO-doo-doo.... err, sorry about that. I mean for the US World Cup roster which is announced tomorrow on ESPN2 during Sportscenter.

Clearly miking the mystery that this process generates, US Soccer has published a big chart of everybody's predictions for who's on. Looking at it, the thing I notice aside from Luis Bueno's off the wall pick of Tony Meola, is the doubt about Gregg Berhalter's inclusion.

As bad as that half was against Germany, Berhalter otherwise hasn't put a foot wrong in his play for the US over the last year. (Don't believe me? His Sams Army ratings from 5/1/2005 to today are 5.72, 5.87, 7.14, 5.69 and
5.49; pretty good for a defender.) He's been in form for his club, who are in line for promotion. He's a veteran of the 2002 campaign. He also is based in Germany and has played in all these venues. Unless an injury happens, I'm pretty sure Berhalter is going.

Some of this may be a numbers game; I think people are questioning whether Arena can really afford to bring five center backs (Pope, Oneywu, Bocanegra, Berhalter and Gibbs). I think he will. Keep in mind the effect of suspensions and knocks in the Cup. In that magical alternative world where we beat Germany in the last World Cup, we would only have had three defenders to face the Koreans.*

After the Germany game I posted a speculation about the Cup roster, in which I said that three spaces really were up for grabs:

1: One center back who can play outside. (Gibbs, Conrad, Spector)
2: One defensive flank player who can attack. (Hejduk, Albright, Dunivant)
3: One utility player, someone who could be used in a variety of roles. (Olsen, Ralston, Noonan, Hejduk.)

Number 1 is probably Cory Gibbs. He's stayed fit with ADO and had a good run in. Conrad is the first reserve if any of the five go down.

Number 3 was a big question but the increasing consensus is that Olsen has nailed it. He did well against Jamaica and scored a nice goal for DC United this weekend that might have sealed the deal. Plus, the Washington Post has mysterious unnamed sources that say he's in.

If there's going to be a surprise in this squad it's going to be in the Number 2 category. The CW has Hejduk as a lock, but I wonder. Chris Albright is a younger Hejduk with additional features: a better cross, a better shot, additional height and strength, and the ability to be a striker if called upon. He's also in form for club and country, whereas Hejduk has looked distinctly mediocre in both counts. What Hejduk has going for him is experience, plus the fact that he always turns up to play in the World Cup. (Mark Flannery of Yanks Abroad gives the case for Frankie here.) That might outweigh what Albright brings, but if it does it's a very near thing indeed....


* Pope, Agoos, Cherundolo, Mastroeni, Sanneh and Hejduk were all injured or suspended. So it would have been Regis, Berhalter and Llamosa versus a Korean onslaught. That would have been fun. And while we're dwelling in Bizarro World, it's worth noting that FIFA have emergency provisions if rosters get too depleted, and Arena might have used them to call up an extra central defender or two. Was there a fit, in-form defender with lots of international experience available at the time ? Why yes there was. Alexi Lalas would probably have been called in for a miracle comeback, and the World Cup would have been ours... ours I tell you!!!