Whenever I'm asked who's going to win the World Cup, I try to stifle myself if the syllable "Bra" comes to my lips. It's not that I think Brazil are going to tank or anything, it's more that the answer is just so... cowardly. Picking Brazil to win the Cup is the easy way out, because they have a incredible history in the competition and such a great team on paper. What kind of wussy prediction is that?
But if you want an argument against Brazil winning that relies on, you know, actual substance, then check out Amy Lawrence's interesting discussion of the Brazilians in this article in the Observer. The concerns with the team, says Lawrence, are that...
A) They're old as the hills, particularly their outside backs
B) Their goalkeeper is awful
C) Their defenders are out of form and weren't really that good to begin with
D) Ronaldo is fat, fat, fat
E) Adriano's personal life is distractingly complex.
B is always the case, and I think D & E are overplayed in the media. It's A and C that are most convincing. If I were an opposing coach, I'd play Brazil in a Chelsea-style 4-5-1 and try to get my wingers in one-on-one situations against Cafu and Roberto Carlos. That'd stretch the central defense nicely, allowing my central midfielders to make attacking runs into the box. A solid performance from my D and I take a 3-1 victory... hell, I'm going to go home and try it out on Winning Eleven right now.
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