US-Germany preview

Wednesday's only friendly match pits the host nation against the US. Their comparative FIFA rankings are pretty funny: the US is 5th while three time world champion Germany is... 22nd?!

Okay, but that's just so much FIFA bologna, I hear you cry. (I tried to come up with a German sausage equivalent, but "knockwurst" doesn't really work. "Braunschweiger" perhaps?) Obviously Germany is the favorite. But here's the point: based on the results themselves, 22nd is frankly about right. Germany haven't beaten a major team in many years, and haven't always do so well against the non-major ones. And following that 4-1 whooping they received two weeks ago, things have reached a crisis point.

Let me just emphasize the point for those readers who aren't familiar with international soccer. There's always pressure on a World Cup team, but for the hosts, there is that much more. If you're the host of the tournament, you have to make a show of it, lest you face total international ridicule and national shame. In the history of the World Cup, every host nation has made it to the second round, no matter how feeble they seemed before the tournament. Switzerland made it in 54. The US did in 94. South Korea and Japan both made it in 2002. And although the Germans have a pretty straightforward group, it's not a complete cakewalk. Increasingly German fans are feeling that they might not make it out of even Group A. They are in desperate need of some... any... kind of confidence boost.

In short, this is the biggest game Germany have played since Euro 2004 and they will be very highly motivated. I'm expecting the same heavy German victory their fans are. Any kind of result for the Americans would be a fantastic one.

The plus side of all that is that the US is under virtually no pressure for this game. They only have something of a makeshift side available, having lost Donovan and Hejduk to injury and Dempsey to a severe case of punchiness; plus they are missing a lot of European players who didn't get a club release. Some points of interest:

• It's really the last chance for Cory Gibbs to make a case for being on the Cup squad. Personally I think the odds are against him; he may be fully fit, but he hasn't even played a match at the full club level yet for ADO Den Haag. Will he really be ready to face a motivated German attack? It might be a no-win situation for him: being left on the bench won't help him but playing probably won't help either. He needs to have a blinder. Same goes for Heath Pearce, by the way.
• Probably a central midfield of Mastroeni and Zavagnin. In another situation, you might want to have a more offensive player in there, but under the circumstances, I think it's a good idea. It'll be left to Klein and particularly Convey to link to the attack. This is a good opportunity for Convey to make a bid for a starting position. It'd be nice to see Olsen get a chance as well.
• I'd like to see Johnson and Twellman as the starting strikers. There will be very few chances, so whoever starts cannot afford to be profligate with them.

As for the German team news, it goes from bad to worse. Sebastian Deisler has been ruled out of the World Cup with a knee injury, and Torsten Frings and Mike Hanke both picked up injuries in Bundesliga play this weekend. Bayer Leverkusen castoff and life of the party Oliver Neuville (who, by the way, is the dead ringer of Lister's Paranoia on Red Dwarf) is the replacement for... well, all of them, I guess.

P.S. Frank Dell'Apa makes, as usual, an interesting point: one of the many intriguing subtexts of this game is that Jurgen Klinsmann is a natural choice as the manager of the United States sometime in the not too distant future, perhaps even after this World Cup. Top flight international experience, yet familiarity with the American game... you know, he might not be a bad choice.