Wednesday, May 24, 2006

Reyna's hamstring injury...

... is not serious, according to Chris Cowles of Reuters. Great news... but it's looking like he'll miss the last two friendlies.

Rode by Morocco

Hmmm. Well, once again that was a pretty poor performance by the United States. Match report here.

Arena's postgame tip of the hat to their opponents was deserved. They did an excellent job of breaking up attacks through the center and they played very quickly when they had to. This being said, we never got to them down the flanks enough, which is odd since we came out in that trendy 4-5-1 formation designed to hurt teams down the flanks and isolate opposing fullbacks. This formation seems custom made for DaMarcus Beasley, but he and the other winger Josh Wolff never really got into this game. The US never found them the ball and when they did the Morocccans were back in numbers.

The crossing from the outside backs was also poor. Cherundulo got a couple of telling crosses in the second half prior to his gaffe, but not nearly what he should. And while Cory Gibbs is a great defender, he isn't yet convincing going forward.

Good points? A nice 45 minutes from John O'Brien, who looked like he was really having fun out there. Donovan and Mastroeni weren't bad.

And then there's Reyna's injury. You just knew that either he, O'Brien or Mastroeni would go down in one of these games. There's nothing to do but to wait on the results of the scan, but I'm guessing he's probably out against Venezuela and Latvia.

Tuesday, May 23, 2006

US Tactics

One story about the US camp that has gotten some attention among hardcore soccer geeks is Ronald Blum's article on how Claudio Reyna is going to play more of a defensive role in this World Cup. I'm not completely sure what practical effect this is going to have.

US fans generally think of Reyna as the primary "playmaker" for the US team. He is the player who sees the most of the ball, and generally determines the direction of the attack. But Reyna is not now, nor has ever been, the Valderrama-style "number 10" who plays behind the strikers and distributes to them and the advancing flank midfielders. Reyna plays very deep; he goes back to just in front of the defense to begin his distribution. When he plays with a strictly defensive midfielder such as Chris Armas or Pablo Mastroeni, you'll see him play almost alongside the d-mid when the US begins the attack. He will then advance to make himself available as an outlet or to support the attack he started. In other words, he plays a lot like a holding midfielder already, admittedly one with better attacking skills than the average.

The Blum article almost implies he will be the defensive midfielder for the US. I think this is probably not going to be the case, and I definitely don't think it should be the case. Because while Reyna often finds himself in a defensive midfielder position, he's not the greatest ballwinner and tough tackler when the opponents have the ball. The US has trouble disrupting opposing attacks when they don't have a Mastroeni or O'Brien in the midfield. I think it will be very important to have a dedicated d-mid in the World Cup, particularly since we'll be facing Pavel Nedved and Francesco Totti--talented midfielders whom we'll need to stifle in some way.

I think what will probably happen is that the US will play a "box" midfield with Reyna and Mastroeni or O'Brien playing behind two offensive midfielders who will play generally centrally, but have license to go to the flanks. The width will be provided by Cherundulo and Lewis and outside back. So in that sense Reyna might be more "defensive," but I think it will not make much difference when you see them on the field.

US-Morocco in an hour and a half, so maybe we'll see an indication of this soon. Enjoy.

An unkinder, rougher Tico

Apparently, Costa Rica has been taking a nice guy approach all this time. Who knew?

Shevchenko

As you may know, the Ukranian national team consists of one guy named Shevchenko and ten guys named Please Spank Me. So it comes as a bit of a blow for Ukranians that the guy named Shevchenko may, in fact, be crocked. The purpose of this press conference was to reassure people he was getting better, but it seems to have had the opposite effect; his knee injury may not be healing as well as was first thought. Maybe Tunisia will be the one to get out of this group in second place.

I really like the BBC photo that accompanies this story. It looks as if Shevchenko, following a particularly violent sneeze, is astonished and appalled by the color of the snot in his hands.

Monday, May 22, 2006

Building up

Now that the Champions League final has concluded and the European season has completely run down, the countdown to the World Cup begins in earnest. All squads have assembled, and some have even arrived in Germany. And this week, some serious warm-up matches will be played. Here's the rundown for the next few days.

Tuesday night: USA-Morocco. Despite a large (for the US) media presence, the American camp has been largely incident free. Which is, of course, exactly the way you want it. Fresh from a 5-0 dusting of the Charleston battery in a scrimmage, the US travels to Nashville to take on Morocco. Bruce Arena is treating the next three friendlies as a dry run for the rigors of the group stage: there will be three matches in a week. So it's hard to say precisely what lineup Arena will use; pretty much every player will get a significant amount of playing time in these games. Some questions for the Tuesday night game: Is O'Brien ready? Who among the strikers will get the goals? And can we avoid the kind of injuries that derailed Chris Armas and Greg Vanney in 2002?

Wednesday night: Ecuador-Colombia. This one's at Giants Stadium, so if you are in the New Jersey area, come down and see how the Ecuadorians are adjusting to playing in oxygen rich environments. Although now that I come to think of it, East Rutherford NJ can hardly be called an oxygen rich environment.

Thursday afternoon: England "B" vs. Belarus. Huh? What precisely does England B mean? From what I'm reading, it means that you might see some players who won't actually be on the World Cup squad; Sven-Goran Erikkson wants to rest Gerrard, Lampard, Terry and Beckham, and he might be a bit short of numbers otherwise. But you probably will see Owen, Campbell and Ashley Cole, and even maybe Theo Walcott if his mum lets him come out and play. It'll be intriguing to see this (it's on FSC in the US.)

Friday afternoon: Saudi Arabia vs. Czech Republic. This is pretty much the first of the pre-Cup friendlies in which both teams will actually be playing in the tournament. If you're one of the six people in the US who gets GolTV, you can actually watch it.

Thursday, May 18, 2006

Smackdown to go

Rather amusingly, Germany are being trash-talked by the coach of Togo. Otto Pfister is German, so there is a logic here, but still... you know your team has a problem or two when the coach of Togo serves you up a diss sandwich.

Tears of a Lion

Apparently the firm that makes the World Cup mascot "Goleo" has gone bust. The BBC speculates that, being a lion, Goleo reminds too many German consumers of England. However, I speculate that consumers of all nationalities find the mere concept of a World Cup mascot a bit silly.

Mind you, as World Cup mascots go, Goleo is less disturbing than prior models: e.g. the unpleasant chicken of 1998, and the post-nuclear fallout Gummi Bears of 2002.

Wednesday, May 17, 2006

Squads

Through a combination of busyness and post-busyness laziness, I haven't been posting much; sorry about that. The big thing I missed, of course, is the announcement of everyone's World Cup squad on Monday. Socceramerica provides a helpful combined list.

I'm still too lazy to blog about all of them, and besides I want to go watch the Champions League final in a few minutes. So here are the stories as I see them:

Germany included veterans Jens Novotny and unknown (well, to me at least) David Odonkor.

Spain left out Morientes, which, if you've seen any Liverpool game this season, is not even slightly surprising.

Poland dropped Jerzy Dudek, so I won't be continually freaked out by the fact that he looks exactly like a guy I know (If you're reading, Michele, it's your husband.) They also didn't bring top scorer Tomasz Frankowski.

Italy included Gianluigi Buffon, despite the fact the waters of scandal are swirling around his jockstrap and rising.

Friday, May 12, 2006

Ghana

... announced their squad today. The Reuters guy says their selection is something of a surprise, with many players on their underperforming African Nations squad being cut. I'm not knowledgeable enough on Ghanian soccer to say, but one thing occurs to me looking at this team: it's going to have trouble scoring goals. Matthew Amoah's recent form for Borussia Dortmund has been steadily getting worse with every game he's played, (culminating in some Kirovski-esque ratings in the last two weeks) and no other name in the forward list really stands out. The onus will be on Appiah and Essien to provide a lot of support for their attackers, which will leave them vulnerable on the break.

Oh, and the country whose shirt resembles a tablecloth in a cheap Italian restaurant also announced their 23.

Thursday, May 11, 2006

His name is Theo and...

... he... well, actually nobody knows what he does.

The inclusion of 17 year old Theo Walcott on the England World Cup has had a fascinating effect on English football fans. You might think that the inclusion of a boy who has never played a minute of first team soccer and who has only been seen by those handful of people in reserve games (his entire league career consists of just 1334 minutes of playing time and four goals, stats that are not dissimilar to those of my rec league career), might lead commentators either to call for the immediate dismissal of Sven on the grounds of insanity or generally to despair. But it hasn't. Reaction has been extraordinarily positive, both among sports journalists and fans in general. Which begs the question: has the entire nation gone bonkers?

Perhaps. But the fascinating thing about this whole affair is that they are in favor of Theo precisely because they have not seen him. All anyone knows is that he's 17, he's fast, and Arsene Wenger thinks he's good. Essentially, Theo is a tabula rasa, a blank slate on which fans can project their hopes for success. By including Theo, Sven has turned the national mood around 180 degrees from the gloom about Wayne Rooney's metatarsal. You see, there's a precedent for fast 17 year olds in the World Cup, and as long as we don't... you know... actually see him beforehand, we can believe he's the new Pele.

Marina Hyde makes precisely this point in her Guardian column today, saying that the inclusion of Theo is the potential set-up for an irresistible narrative, and so of course everyone likes him. She also compares Sven to Ibsen, which I thought was something of a stretch, until this biography informed me that Ibsen "had a few episodes of friendship with young women." They also have the same glasses, but Sven does need to work on the sideburns:






Tuesday, May 09, 2006

Sloganeering

Sweden and Ecuador announced Cup squads today. But let's skip all the substance and analysis and get to the important stuff, like what slogans will be painted on the team's buses. Somehow, dammit, I missed the competition that allowed fans to choose their team's official slogan at the FIFA website. Now the final results are in, and they range from the obvious...

Australia - "Australia Socceroos – Bound for glory"

to the laughably implausible...

Saudi Arabia - "The Green Hawks cannot be stopped"

to the utterly bland...

Serbia and Montenegro - "For the love of the game"

to the very faintly praising...

Tunisia – "The Carthage Eagles... higher and stronger than ever"

to the threatening...

Costa Rica- "Our army is the team, our weapon is the ball. Let's go to Germany and give it our all"

to the nagging...

Sweden – "Fight! Show spirit! Come on! You have the support of everyone"

to the Gatorade-commerical-esque...

Togo – "A passion to win and a thirst to succeed"

to the brilliantly surreal:

Switzerland – "2006, it's Swiss o'clock" .


I encourage you, dear reader, to submit your own proposals for team slogans in the comments. Please ignore any scruples you might possess concerning issues of good taste, especially for your Serbian entry.

Monday, May 08, 2006

The England squad

... is, in the words of Football365, "absolutely mental:"

Robinson (Tottenham), James (Manchester City), Green (Norwich), G Neville (Manchester United), R Ferdinand (Manchester United), Terry (Chelsea), A Cole (Arsenal), Campbell (Arsenal), Carragher (Liverpool), Bridge (Chelsea), Beckham (Real Madrid), Carrick (Tottenham), Lampard (Chelsea), Gerrard (Liverpool), Hargreaves (Bayern Munich), Jenas (Totenham), Downing (Middlesbrough), J Cole (Chelsea), Lennon (Tottenham), Rooney (Manchester United), Owen (Newcastle), Crouch (Liverpool), Walcott (Arsenal).

Walcott? The 17 year old who hasn't yet had a first team game for Arsenal? That's bizarre.

Also bizarre: of the four strikers in the squad, one currently resides in an oxygen tank, and one is not yet a legal adult. Bearing that in mind, and the includion of Lennon and Downing, might Sven go 4-3-3 with wingers in Germany this summer?

UPDATE: After the initial shock, the reaction is positive; F365 have amended the adverb to "brilliantly." And their correspondents seem to like it too.

Thursday, May 04, 2006

Frankie H.

If you haven't read it yet, please do check out Dan Loney's encomium to Frankie Hedjuk in his weekly column. The secret of Frankie's success? Steaming down the flanks like a madman while opposing players watch him in confusion, says Dan. Yep. The Babelfish translator at Altavista said it best, when, describing his brief glory days at Bayer Leverkusen, it said, "Hejduk's flank runs were an eye pasture."

Good luck with the recovery, Frankie. We'll miss you in Germany.

That's confidence

The USA may have announced their squad a full two weeks before the roster deadline, but Carlos Alberto Perreira, coach of Brazil, has us beat. He's actually named his starting XI for the first match against Croatia. It's got the Fantsatic Four of Ronaldinho, Kaka, Ronaldo and Adriano leading the attack (if they really were the Fantastic Four, I'm guessing Ronaldo would be The Thing.), and old-as-the-hills wing backs Cafu and Roberto Carlos providing the flank play. (I'm telling you Group F coaches: move your strikers into isolation situations against these two. First team to do that beats Brazil.) Robinho is presumably waiting in the wings for when Ronaldo is too tired of waddling around up front.

I guess when Brazil beats them 4-0, the Croutons can't claim that their opponent's fooled them with their formation and lineup.

Blame Franz Ferdinand

No, not the Scottish post-punk band, but rather the original Archduke. That's the recommendation of the Guardian's Marina Hyde as she seeks to dole out blame for Wayne Rooney's injury woes. She also points the knobbly finger of culpability at Maggie Thatcher, Tsar Nicholas II, and Phil Knight. (Now there's a fun bunch of folks.) Damn you, Гаврило Принцип!

Clearly in a jolly mood, the Guardian also gives us an indication of what Rooney's oxygen treatment will be like. You might be thinking, oxygen? I like oxygen; sounds okay by me. But actually it sounds kind of unpleasant and grotesque, kind of like being the Man in the Iron Mask only 30 feet underwater.

No Big Phil after all.

Meanwhile, back in Blighty, there's been news on the managerial front. For some reason, the FA has decided not to hire Scolari after all and instead is going to name Middlesborough boss Steve McClaren as manager later today. Apparently, Scolari either refused their offer or didn't want to commit until after the World Cup, so they up and hired McClaren instead. And why didn't they just wait for Big Phil, considering they already have a manager for the World Cup? Perhaps because they didn't want to have to be in the position of considering Sven again if England did well? But probably because they're a bunch of amateur clowns.

Anyway, for those who don't follow the English scene, McClaren is the manager of a mediocre club whose main items in his curriculum vitae are A) an implausible run to the final of the UEFA Cup this year and B) and English passport.

Damn, that was quick...

Apparently, when Bruce Arena alerted his alternates that they did not, in fact, make the World Cup team, he included a little reminder of what happened in the 2002 lead-up when two alternates were called. He could very well send a follow-up e-mail that just says "See what I mean?" For a mere 24 hours after the US squad was announced, one player has already been replaced. Frankie Hejduk has been diagnosed with a torn ACL, and Chris Albright has been called up to replace him.

Changing a World Cup squad 24 hours after you've announced it has to be some kind of world record. In any case, this renders my Hejduk vs. Albright comparisons of 48 hours ago completely moot.

Tuesday, May 02, 2006

The US squad

Here's me, 24 hours ago:

As bad as that half was against Germany, Berhalter otherwise hasn't put a foot wrong in his play for the US over the last year. (Don't believe me? His Sams Army ratings from 5/1/2005 to today are 5.72, 5.87, 7.14, 5.69 and 5.49; pretty good for a defender.) He's been in form for his club, who are in line for promotion. He's a veteran of the 2002 campaign. He also is based in Germany and has played in all these venues. Unless an injury happens, I'm pretty sure Berhalter is going.

Damn, that was eloquent, wasn't it? And a fine use of evidence to strengthen a thesis statement. Only problem is that it was ass-wrong. The US squad for Germany was announced, and Berhalter isn't on it:

Goalkeepers: Kasey Keller (Borussia Monchengladbach), Tim Howard (Manchester United), Marcus Hahnemann (Reading)

Defenders: Carlos Bocanegra (Fulham), Steve Cherundolo (Hannover 96), Jimmy Conrad (Kansas City), Cory Gibbs (ADO den Haag), Frankie Hejduk (Columbus), Eddie Lewis (Leeds United), Oguchi Onyewu (Standard de Liege), Eddie Pope (Real Salt Lake).

Midfielders: DaMarcus Beasley (PSV Eindhoven), Bobby Convey (Reading), Clint Dempsey (New England), Landon Donovan (Los Angeles), Pablo Mastroeni (Colorado), John O'Brien (Chivas USA), Ben Olsen (D.C. United), Claudio Reyna (Manchester City)

Forwards: Brian Ching (Houston), Eddie Johnson (Kansas City), Brian McBride (Fulham), Josh Wolff (Kansas City).


In Berhalter's place, clearly, is Jimmy Conrad. The logic here is twofold, I think. First off, Conrad played a lot of games for the US earlier in the year, and developed a nice partnership with Eddie Pope. Secondly, Conrad is right footed. Arena already has two left-footed center backs who can play left back in a pinch (Bocanegra and Gibbs), while Conrad can be a right back if necessary. I'm surprised, but I'm not really disappointed.

However, the biggest surprise is Ching for Twellman, and I think this decision is wrong. The logic, I suppose, is Ching's MLS form, coupled with his understanding with Landon Donovan, and the problems his size might cause. But Twellman has fared far better than Ching for the US this year, and presents a different kind of problem for defenses: he chases every ball down, harries defenders and throws himself at even the quarter chances. My MLS team is the Revolution, so I'm biased, but I really think Twellman is the better choice.

In any case, let us not forget that there is still a long way to go here. There's one last set of club games, as well as a month of preparation and training. In 2002, we had a player injured in mid-May, after which his replacement got injured, after which his replacement got injured, whereupon Arena just gave up. It's quite possible that one or more reserves could get called up between now and June.

Off the Post.

The Washington Post has a cool graphic providing both their roster picks and their choice of starting XI. (Presumably the royal "we" of the article is Steven Goff and Jon DeNunzio.) They say Albright instead of Hejduk and drop Berhalter in favor of... Pat Noonan!

Bearing in mind their mysterious unnamed sources for Olsen's inclusion, are they giving us an unauthorized leak? After all, they were right about the whole Watergate thing....

UPDATE: And Soccer America's official prediction is... exactly the same as the squad I've predicted. All those years posting on the late lamented Soccer American Graffiti must have rubbed off. Amusingly, SA breaks the team down into five categories: goalkeepers, defenders, midfielders, forwards and Donovan.

Procrastination

The deadline for Rooney to be replaced on the England roster is June 9th, according to FIFA. So Sven has a good five weeks to judge Rooney's recovery and make a decision.

Monday, May 01, 2006

The final countdown

Doo-doo-DOOO-doo. Doo-doo-DOOO-doo-doo.... err, sorry about that. I mean for the US World Cup roster which is announced tomorrow on ESPN2 during Sportscenter.

Clearly miking the mystery that this process generates, US Soccer has published a big chart of everybody's predictions for who's on. Looking at it, the thing I notice aside from Luis Bueno's off the wall pick of Tony Meola, is the doubt about Gregg Berhalter's inclusion.

As bad as that half was against Germany, Berhalter otherwise hasn't put a foot wrong in his play for the US over the last year. (Don't believe me? His Sams Army ratings from 5/1/2005 to today are 5.72, 5.87, 7.14, 5.69 and
5.49; pretty good for a defender.) He's been in form for his club, who are in line for promotion. He's a veteran of the 2002 campaign. He also is based in Germany and has played in all these venues. Unless an injury happens, I'm pretty sure Berhalter is going.

Some of this may be a numbers game; I think people are questioning whether Arena can really afford to bring five center backs (Pope, Oneywu, Bocanegra, Berhalter and Gibbs). I think he will. Keep in mind the effect of suspensions and knocks in the Cup. In that magical alternative world where we beat Germany in the last World Cup, we would only have had three defenders to face the Koreans.*

After the Germany game I posted a speculation about the Cup roster, in which I said that three spaces really were up for grabs:

1: One center back who can play outside. (Gibbs, Conrad, Spector)
2: One defensive flank player who can attack. (Hejduk, Albright, Dunivant)
3: One utility player, someone who could be used in a variety of roles. (Olsen, Ralston, Noonan, Hejduk.)

Number 1 is probably Cory Gibbs. He's stayed fit with ADO and had a good run in. Conrad is the first reserve if any of the five go down.

Number 3 was a big question but the increasing consensus is that Olsen has nailed it. He did well against Jamaica and scored a nice goal for DC United this weekend that might have sealed the deal. Plus, the Washington Post has mysterious unnamed sources that say he's in.

If there's going to be a surprise in this squad it's going to be in the Number 2 category. The CW has Hejduk as a lock, but I wonder. Chris Albright is a younger Hejduk with additional features: a better cross, a better shot, additional height and strength, and the ability to be a striker if called upon. He's also in form for club and country, whereas Hejduk has looked distinctly mediocre in both counts. What Hejduk has going for him is experience, plus the fact that he always turns up to play in the World Cup. (Mark Flannery of Yanks Abroad gives the case for Frankie here.) That might outweigh what Albright brings, but if it does it's a very near thing indeed....


* Pope, Agoos, Cherundolo, Mastroeni, Sanneh and Hejduk were all injured or suspended. So it would have been Regis, Berhalter and Llamosa versus a Korean onslaught. That would have been fun. And while we're dwelling in Bizarro World, it's worth noting that FIFA have emergency provisions if rosters get too depleted, and Arena might have used them to call up an extra central defender or two. Was there a fit, in-form defender with lots of international experience available at the time ? Why yes there was. Alexi Lalas would probably have been called in for a miracle comeback, and the World Cup would have been ours... ours I tell you!!!

Bad Roon Falling

If you watched Manchester United's putatively Thermopylaean but ultimately lame attempt to stop Chelsea from winning the EPL title, then you know the big World Cup news of the weekend: Wayne Rooney broke his fourth metatarsal in an awkward fall. The projected layoff time is six weeks, throwing his World Cup participation into extreme doubt.

Will Sven-Goran Eriksson take Rooney on his World Cup squad even if he can't play until the knockout phase? Apparently so. However Alex Ferguson counsels realism.

Probably the immediate plan is for Sven to name him to the side and see how his recovery proceeds by the May 15th deadline. After that, he might be able to replace Rooney on the roster if he feels he needs to, but as the article I linked to above suggests, there is some confusion over whether FIFA would allow a player injured before May 15th to be replaced.

Is Sven crazy? I don't think so. The worst case scenario is that Rooney's foot doesn't recover in time (which is a big risk; when Rooney had a similar injury after Euro 2004 he was out for ten weeks), in which case he ends up being that 23rd man who never gets used. But the best case scenario is that you get him off the bench in the later rounds, rusty but a damn sight more dangerous than Darren Bent, or whoever else would have gotten Rooney's spot.

So who starts up front alongside Owen for England? Maybe this guy. I don't quite know how I feel about that.

P.S. This is all eerily familiar for England fans, since David Beckham picked up a similar injury before the World Cup. No nation in the world is more knowledgeable on the subject of metatarsals than the English.

P.P.S. Since the British press regularly compete against each other for the worst "Rooney" puns, I thought I'd give it a crack in the subject line. What do you think? It beat out "Roonquest" on the grounds that A) it fits with what actually happened and B) "Roonquest" is a reference that's too geeky and obscure even for this blog.

Thursday, April 27, 2006

Owwwwennnn!!!

(That subject line is read in your best Anne Ramsey voice, by the way.)

Lost in all the Big Phil drama is the more important news that Michael Owen will return to the Newcastle starting lineup against Birmingham this weekend. Owen returns at the perfect moment: in time to get match fit before the World Cup, but not too early so as to wear himself out or risk another injury.

Big Phil

The English press is all a-twitter today with the news that the FA have been in talks with current Portuguese coach Phil Scolari, aka "Big Phil" (I so wish his nickname was "Sizeable Phillip."), to succeed Sven-Goran Eriksson as English coach after the World Cup. Rumor has it they've offered the job to Scolari, which has prompted both excitement and the expected patriotic backlash. Carrie Dunn has a useful primer on Big Phil that's worth checking out.

If all this is true, I'm sure Scolari will be an excellent English manager, but it's the way that all this has been done that has left a bad taste in my mouth. Isolating and then firing Sven before the tournament started (and for totally non-football reasons), coupled with the monumental silliness of the whole interview process makes this a textbook example of how not to run a national team program.

UPDATE: The Evening Standard says that Scolari's accepted the offer.

Wednesday, April 26, 2006

Tuesday Afternoon

is when we learn who Arena's 23 man squad for the World Cup is. Today, Marc Connolly gave us his assessment of the bubble players for the US. I think most of his guesses are spot on (although what's the difference between being "Bubble" and "Firmly on the Bubble?" Since a bubble is by definition a boundary area, being "firmly on the bubble" makes no sense to me.)

The boldest prediction Connolly makes is that Ben Olsen has made this team. I'm not entirely convinced of this; Steve Goff says 60/40, which seems about right to me. Certainly his utility puts him in a good position.

The biggest danger of naming an early roster is that someone might be named who's injured and expected to recover, but who's recovery goes less well than expected, putting Bruce Arena in a difficult position. John O'Brien is the obvious player in this position, but so is Carlos Bocanegra, who hasn't played for Fulham in a long while.

In defense of the FIFA World rankings.

If there's one thing that everyone in the world of soccer agrees on, it's that the FIFA World Rankings are about as reliable as the electrics on a 70s Fiat. Here's a sampling of the conventional wisdom.

Steven Goff: "FIFA rankings are complete nonsense."
Dan Loney: "All the Coca-Cola rankings prove is that American Samoa and Guam didn't win the World Cup recently."
Grant Wahl: "... any self-respecting soccer fan knows the screwy FIFA rankings make college football's BCS poll look like an Oliver Wendell Holmes ruling "
Jon DeNunzio: "All mention of the FIFA/Coca-Cola Rankings on this blog are banned."

I could go on, but I'm sick of Googling and anyway, you get the point.

Allow me to offer a slightly contrarian view of the world rankings. Yes, they're stupid if you use them as a basis for comparisons and predicting results. The 4th ranked (?!?!?) USA was handily dispatched by 19th ranked Germany (back then they were 5th and 22nd) as anybody would expect.

But I think the rankings are a fairly reliable indicator of form; that is to say, they give a pretty good indication of how many games teams have won and lost over the last cycle. And let's face it, in terms of form, Germany have thoroughly deserved their ranking; tanking in Euro 2004, and losing friendlies against inferior opponents. Only a semi-decent Confed Cup have kept them in the top 25. And while the Czech Republic's #2 ranking is often given as evidence for the silliness of the whole exercise, it does reflect that over the last few years, they've won a lot of games, with only Greece in Euro 2004 and Holland in recent qualifying, stopping them.

So as long as you take this with a substantial grain of salt, you can get something out of these rankings. For instance, the Swiss have a seemingly low ranking of 35, an indicator that they tied a lot of games to qualify.

Mind you, as Dan alludes to in the article I linked to above, the ranking system really favors the USA. First off, we play a lot of friendlies on home soil, much more so than other nations, and we tend to win them comfortably. Moreover, our so-called continental championship is remarkably lame, and is a competition we tend to do very well at (once again, it's at home).

Anyway as a system goes, it's light-years from perfect, or good even, but I don't think it's quite the useless distraction it's always made out to be.

Tuesday, April 25, 2006

If you're into that sort of thing...

FIFA will have a fantasy competition during the World Cup. Having a fantasy competition based on national teams seems a bit weird to me. There's a chance that your fantasy Major League baseball team might in fact be assembled one day, but there's absolutely no way that your fantasy World Cup team will. Whatever... enjoy.

Cup miscellany

Apologies for the lack of posts. I've had a very busy work week, and this weekend I attended a music festival, so I've had very little free time, and the free time I have had, I've spent... well, watching soccer.

Not too much World Cup news over the last few days; people are focused on the domestic European leagues winding down and the Champions League semis. Here's a round up:
  • DaMarcus Beasley was charged with drunk driving last week. It's just the latest bad event in what's been a rough year for the Beas; he hasn't been able to hold a place in the PSV starting line-up and has sometimes been disappointing when he's gotten on the field. Let's hope these distractions don't spill over into his World Cup performances.
  • The Dutch named a provisional 33 player squad for the Cup, with cuts to come later. One player in doubt might be the magnificently-named Rafael Van der Vaart, who faces an upcoming surgery.
  • Costa Rica has named 28 players on their provisional squad. World Cup goal scorer Winston Parks was left off, while LA Galaxy reject Michael Umana was deemed worthy of inclusion. Good luck with that.
  • Everyone wants a piece of Liechtenstein.
  • Need a place to stay in Germany this summer? How about this dude's shed?
  • An Ecuadorian shaman has exorcised all the evil spirits in Leipzig. No that's not quite true:

Tzamarenda Naychapi -- a priest who practices magic for healing, divination and controlling events -- let out a loud scream to chase away evil spirits in the centre of the pitch at Leipzig's Zentralstadion on Monday. (Emphasis mine)

As long as you're a midfielder, you're probably safe; however, goalkeepers should keep crucifixes at the ready. And if ever any player falls over in the attacking third and starts writhing around in pain after the tiniest contact from an opposing defender, you'll know that it's not cowardly opportunism designed to win a free kick; rather it's because the shaman couldn't be bothered to schlep his necromantic ass down to that end of the field.

Wednesday, April 19, 2006

Chicken soup for the soul

Undoubtedly over the next couple of months there'll be some articles analyzing what the various national teams are eating in their team camps. When these articles come, I can promise you that Kicker Conspiracy will be all over them. In the meantime, here is an appetizer, so to speak. Via Jon DeNunzio's Road to the World Cup blog in the Washington Post, Portugal are going to be servin' up tasty chicken soup to alleviate their players' homesickness.

The reason Luis Figo was turned into Tony Sanneh's plaything in 2002? Not enough soup.

Racism and the World Cup

In response to several recent incidents of racism in European stadia, FIFA has announced strict new regulations punishing teams whose fans are practicing such behavior. Yesterday, FIFA prez Sepp Blatter announced that these punishments, including a three point penalty for teams with racist fans, will apply at the World Cup.

I'm skeptical about this for two reasons. First off, although this is a legitimate problem, the fan dynamics of the World Cup (all matches in a neutral nation, limited ticket allocations, and the expense of those tickets) make it less likely that incidents of racism will occur. I can't recall any incidents of fan racism at the Wolrd Cup finals (although the qualification tournament is another matter.)

Secondly, as the Guardian points out, there are a number of flaws in this scheme. Three point penalties are fine during the group phase, but what about the knockout phase? And what's stopping some cunning fans from gaming the system and making racist noises and comments and members of their own team, hoping their opponents will be penalized?

Perhaps more importantly, why should a national team, playing in a neutral venue, be responsible for the behavior of the people in the crowd? A club is able to administer their own stadium and is thus able to take measures against racism. But how will a national federation in Germany be able to do that if they are playing a one off match in a foreign stadium?

Tuesday, April 18, 2006

Golden Balls

No, not a post about David Beckham, but rather the official World Cup ball, which actually looks quite spiffy. Apparently, each of the balls will be customized for each match with the date of the match and the names of the teams. So if you manage to catch a wayward Frank Lampard rocket in the stands, don't throw it back; it will probably be worth a mint on Ebay.

The celeb who unveiled the new ball was Franz Beckenbauer, who made a hilariously catty observation about the host nation's squad:

"Ideally, I would like to see Germany face Brazil in the Final but, in view of recent results, I think the chances of the German team reaching that stage are slim. However, I am confident that Jurgen Klinsmann and his backroom staff will ensure that the lads are in peak condition ahead of the tournament."

Shorter Kaiser: "We may not win scheiße, but I'm sure we'll be able to run around aimlessly." I don't know what "faint praise" is in German, but I suspect it's one very long word.

Saturday, April 15, 2006

Keeper in a Keep

Kasey Keller lives in a castle!!! That is so unbelievably cool!

Thursday, April 13, 2006

Charm Offensive, Part 2

A month or so back, I commented on the "charm offensive" the host nation was launching in advance of the World Cup. Today, the Beeb has a report on how the city of Berlin is doing their part:

By adopting "A time to make friends" as the tournament slogan, World Cup organisers want national stereotypes lingering since World War II to be smothered under a friendly embrace.

Note the undertonal menace of that last passive participle. I can't decide if this is some manifestation of a Lacanian textual unconscious or if they're just trying to be funny.

Also amusing this description of English fans, offered up by a German sports journalist:

"Sun protection seems to be an alien concept for a lot of them and they like to drink at 10 o'clock in the morning, but that's OK if they don't hit passers-by."

Trinidad cup squad

Dwight Yorke! Stern John! Russell Latapy! The white guy! And they're all going to the World Cup. Today Trinidad announced its provisional 24 man roster.

Why 24, when the roster maximum is 23? The heck if I know. Maybe Leo Beenhakker thinks the law of averages means at least one ACL injury over the next month.

I was thrilled when Trinidad qualified, but egad, they're going to have a tough time of it in Germany.

Wednesday, April 12, 2006

Not so Bad anymore

Imagine you're a Saudi footballer. You like what you do, but in Arabia there aren't really the wide range of recreational options there are for other footballers. Therefore, you're rather looking forward to your summer trip to Germany, where they famously take a more liberal view on these matters.

Imagine, then, your crestfallen despondency when you learn that the German town of Bad Neuheim, Saudi Arabia's base for the tournament, is planning a booze and porn elimination fest of epic proportions in order to prepare for your team's arrival. Maybe they could rename the town Frustratingly Good Neuheim.

US-Jamaica

Well that was all a bit crap wasn't it?

Arena's praise of the Jamaicans was well merited; they worked continually at disrupting the US flow, and overall they were very successful at doing so. In fact, the most dispiriting thing about the whole affair was our inability to find a rhythm at any point in the match. I couldn't hear the commentary (I was at a bar), but it seemed from the captions that Marcelo Balboa was going on about how the Americans had reassumed dominance in the midfield after a difficult opening period. Possessional dominance maybe, but the Jamaicans always controlled the tempo of the game; no one on the US side could slow the game down and work a creative build-up. The result was an frenetic, artless affair, full of sound and fury, but signifying (and producing) nothing.

Given these circumstances, it's really no surprise, therefore, that the player of the match should be Ben Olsen. Olsen did well because the Jamaican strategy suited his natural game: he was able to match them by running around, working hard, making some tackles and providing some energy. It was a nice performance, but what we really needed was a player to dictate the pace of the game and inject some creativity. And no one could do that on the US team tonight. The Jamaicans did a nice job keeping Noonan and the unlucky Ralston on a short leash.

The strikers were pretty forgettable, but then there was very little quality service. Sometimes Wolff or Johnson went out wide to receive passes, and I thought these moments were the most promising. Otherwise, Arena faces the same conundrum at forward that he's been facing for the last half a year. I suspect he's leaning towards moving Donovan up to partner McBride and bringing in an in-form midfielder--Dempsey or Convey-- to the starting XI.

Chris Albright looked good in the box--maybe some coach should try and convert him into a striker.... Actually, Albright did his roster chances a power of good simply by being a better Frankie Hejduk than Frankie Hejduk. Bearing in mind he's a wing back who can play in midfield or even up front, Albright may well make his way to that Cup roster after all.

Speaking of which, there was the strange decision to announce a provisional 35 man roster today, followed by the equally strange decision not to announce it after all. I haven't the foggiest what that was about, other than someone realized that provisional rosters are all a bit pointless.

Tuesday, April 11, 2006

Your morning reading

All the US-Jamaica preview you need is right here.

Meanwhile, on the front of the Washington Post sports section, Steve Goff has a very fine profile of Oguchi Onyewu. Do check it out.

Onyewu's rise in the US team has been truly meteoric. Fifteen months ago, he was a promising prospect whom Arena gave some garbage minutes against Panama, where he could get experience. Now he's not only a starter, he's one of the essential US players, along with Reyna, Donovan, Beasley and Keller.

Monday, April 10, 2006

Break up to make up

Spring is here and love is in the air! After losing out in a very public goalkeeper controversy, Oliver Kahn, says he will not acrimoniously retire after all. Not only will he accept being Germany's #2 keeper, he'll even cheer on his arch-nemesis Mad Jens:

"I'm not the sort of person who can't lose," Kahn said. "The whole team, including Jens Lehmann, will have my full support."

Okay, so it wasn't completely enthusiastic, but I doubt I would be either given the circumstances. Anyway, Klinsmann will be thrilled to have Kahn's ursine posterior warming the bench as Germany's backup keeper.

But lest you start thinking that the Kahn-Lehmann peace pact is the sign of a new age of peace, love and understanding, also in the news today was reports of a rift between Michael Owen and Wayne Rooney. Apparently, Rooney has racked up some 700,000 pounds of gambling debt, much of which is owed to Mickey's bookmaker company, whose customers consist largely of overpaid and undereducated sports stars. Everyone involved (or, more accurately, the agents of everyone involved) denies that any disagreement has taken place, but given Rooney's charming propensity for telling assistant refs to f*** off after every offside call, it's easy to imagine that he's a touch miffed.

So that's what for Rooney... about three months wages? Surely one good Nike commercial could knock that out.

Brazil: The Case Against

Whenever I'm asked who's going to win the World Cup, I try to stifle myself if the syllable "Bra" comes to my lips. It's not that I think Brazil are going to tank or anything, it's more that the answer is just so... cowardly. Picking Brazil to win the Cup is the easy way out, because they have a incredible history in the competition and such a great team on paper. What kind of wussy prediction is that?

But if you want an argument against Brazil winning that relies on, you know, actual substance, then check out Amy Lawrence's interesting discussion of the Brazilians in this article in the Observer. The concerns with the team, says Lawrence, are that...

A) They're old as the hills, particularly their outside backs
B) Their goalkeeper is awful
C) Their defenders are out of form and weren't really that good to begin with
D) Ronaldo is fat, fat, fat
E) Adriano's personal life is distractingly complex.

B is always the case, and I think D & E are overplayed in the media. It's A and C that are most convincing. If I were an opposing coach, I'd play Brazil in a Chelsea-style 4-5-1 and try to get my wingers in one-on-one situations against Cafu and Roberto Carlos. That'd stretch the central defense nicely, allowing my central midfielders to make attacking runs into the box. A solid performance from my D and I take a 3-1 victory... hell, I'm going to go home and try it out on Winning Eleven right now.

Friday, April 07, 2006

The German keeper for the cup will be...

Mad Jens. Apparently Steve Cherundulo's 70 yard fluke goal against Kahn was a factor in the decision!

Thursday, April 06, 2006

Mahmoud's European Vacation

Even repressive and slightly unhinged extremist rulers like international soccer! Take for instance, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who apparently wants to visit the Iranian team in Germany during the World Cup. I can see him now at the June 11th opener against Mexico, bratwurst in hand, chanting obscenely about Jared Borgetti's mother. Good thing they weren't drawn against the US this time round. (They can't play each other until the championship match or third-place game, so it ain't happening.)

As the article hints, Mahmoud brings more baggage than the current contretemps over the Iranian nuclear program. Germany has a law punishing Holocaust denial with jail time, and Mahmoud's remarks on the subject put him well into David Irving territory and then some. So if he came, the German authorities would be put either in the awkward position of arresting him or in the awkward position of explaining why they aren't arresting him.
But the biggest loser if Mahmoud takes a summer vacation to Germany is the Iranian national team. An Ahmadinejad visit would be an incredibly distracting situation, one in which politics, rather than soccer, will take center stage. With an experienced squad, and playing in a country with which many of their players are familiar, Iran have a not terrible chance of getting out of Group D, a chance that could well be scuppered if a visit from their dear leader starts interfering with their preparation.

UPDATE: What's Farsi for "Psyche!"?

Wednesday, April 05, 2006

Subjectivity and Cuauhtemoc Blanco

The inherent subjectivity of blogging is both the strength and weakness of the medium. We can see this most prominently in political weblogs, which are more closely related to editorials than they are actual news stories. Personally, I'm attracted to that aspect of the blog world; since a well-supported and closely argued point of view--even if it's a perspective you disagree with--can often be more intellectually stimulating than the he-said, she said discourses of the "mainstream media" that pass for objectivity.

That being said, I also like juvenile snark. And so we come to the case of Cuauhtemoc Blanco, who was left off the provisional 26-man Mexico squad announced this week by Ricardo Lavolpe.

If I were writing about this story for ASN, I'd need to be objective about this. I'd undoubtedly focus on the effect the omission will have on Mexico's goalscoring chances (none at all.) Or I might speculate on the effect this will have on the unity of Mexico's squad (again, probably none at all, since he's barely been capped over the last few years.)

But I'm not. So let me instead say that say that I find Blanco's omission, and his subsequent puzzlement at it, very funny. And let me go in to say that I'll enjoy the World Cup just a teeny-weeny little bit more for him not being there. I won't have to see that stupid and basically useless bunny-hop move. I won't get to see his displays of pure class, such as when he almost punched Pablo Mastroeni while Mastroeni was lying on the ground.

(One bit of non-snarkage. If Mexico go down in flames at the World Cup, Blanco's omission will be the first piece of explanatory evidence used against him, just as Harkes's was against Steve Sampson in 98. And I'll bet you a doughnut that the first person to point it out will be Lavolpe bete-noire Hugo Sanchez.)

Tuesday, April 04, 2006

US squad for Jamaica...

is announced.

Last week I speculated that Arena might bring in his English-based keepers for this one, but on the LA-New England telecast, Arena said that he wouldn't bring in Hahnemann and Convey from "Championship" champions Reading. So I wondered who in fact would play keeper for the US team against Jamaica: how do you motivate a player who's definitely not going to the World Cup? The answer is that it will basically be Tony Meola's testimonial match, giving him an even 100 caps. Maybe he'll get beaten near post for old time's sake.

The rest of the squad is Arena's MLS contingent. The big omission here is Chris Klein. Soccer America speculates that Klein lost his roster chance against Germany a couple of weeks back. That's probably true, but it also represents Arena's last opportunity to look at a fit Steve Ralston, who plays basically the same position as Klein. For Ralston, Pat Noonan, Chris Albright and Brian Ching, this represents the last opportunity to impress Arena in a pre-Cup friendly--the Bruce announces his squad on May 2nd.

Oh and John O'Brien's back, having newly signed for Chivas USA. He'll have a total of one game with his new employers before taking the field against Jamaica. If he can stay fit and actually play full matches for the Goats, he'll be on that May 2nd roster. If not, look to that reported 10-man alternate list, and in particular one K. Zavagnin.

Friday, March 31, 2006

Referees

Here's the FIFA referee roster for the World Cup.

Can I just take a moment to express my complete befuddlement that Peter Prendergast is a again a tournament referee? No referee consistently gets things wrong more than Prendergast--the Gregg Berhalter "handball" call in Costa Rica, the disallowed Belgian goal against Brazil in the round of 16 in 2002... and those were just the big result-changing mistakes. He makes terrible calls in every match he officiates.

I think having the referee roster correlate with the geographical breakdown of the participants is utterly idiotic. Competence should be the only factor determining whether a referee participates. Any referee with experience in the top European or South American leagues would be better than that joker Prendergast.

Thursday, March 30, 2006

American goalies

Steven Goff has an interesting catch in today's Post: the three US goalies in Germany this summer will probably be Keller, Howard and Hahnemann, and that no MLS goalies will called in:

"In all fairness, do you punish Tim Howard for being at Man United behind one of the best goalkeepers in the world?" Arena said. "Do you punish Marcus Hahnemann? These are guys who, in their own rights, have earned an opportunity to be part of the World Cup roster. Is it set in stone at this point? No, but I think we have three goalkeepers who appear to be a little bit ahead of the domestic keepers at the moment."

This is almost certainly the right call. Although one of the strengths of MLS is their keepers, there isn't one goalkeeper who has stood head and shoulders above the rest over the last year. Hartmann is not good enough with his feet, Thornton is too immobile, Guzan is too young and Reis is a touch too adventurous. The only one who might have gotten short shrift is Joe Cannon, and even he didn't have as good a year as he did in 2004. Keller, Hahnemann and Howard are unquestionably the top three choices in my mind.

The biggest question, re: goalies, is who would replace Keller if he picked up an injury. Do you go with the match sharp Hahnemann or the rusty, but with top flight experience Howard? Not an easy call. I think they'll probably both be called up for the Jamaica match despite it not falling on an international date--Howard's a sub for Man U, and Hahnemann's season is essentially finished with Reading's promotion--and we'll get a chance to compare them then.

Liechtenstein was too scary

Apparently unwilling to take the field against the Vaduz Vanquishers, the German federation has gone for the Luxembourgers in that pre-Cup friendly I was talking about earlier.

(Note: if the adjective describing people from Luxembourg is "Luxembourgois," I neither know nor care.)

A couple of friendly results from yesterday, by the way. Mexico got a nice win against Paraguay at Soldier Field, and Japan underwhelmed to beat Ecuador at home.

Let's talk about...

Like clockwork, every four years there are a spate of articles before the World Cup debating whether or not players should be allowed to have sex during the tournament. One school of thought is that celibate players will have their energies more focused on playing the matches. The other school of thought thinks the first is batsh*t insane.

Anyway, you'll be pleased to hear that Brazil coach Carlos Alberto Parreira apparently is pro-nookie. He also encourages his players to play conga drums (although not at the same time, one hopes).

Tuesday, March 28, 2006

100% Germany-free post

In 2002, Saudi Arabia were the worst team in the World Cup. Such levels of suckitude are difficult to maintain, but the Saudis* are off to a good start in their preparations: today they lost at home 2-1 to Poland, in a match that the Poles apparently controlled for long stretches.

It's hard to know what to make of Saudi Arabia. They did very well in 1994 and seemed to be a rising force on the world stage. But in the next two Cups they stank on ice (or sand, rather), and there's little indication that 2006 will be any different. A large part of the problem is that their players almost never play abroad, and so they can't get the kind of experience that playing in a top league can give you.

Watch them win the whole thing now after my snark. If they are going to have World Cup success, it better be this year; they'll never have a kinder draw than Spain, Ukraine and Tunisia.

* Why are they always called "Saudis"? The house of Saud, after whom Saudi Arabia is named, is just one family (albeit a super-powerful one). Why aren't they called "Arabians?"

Monday, March 27, 2006

Mmm... soothing...

Speaking of nutty German plans, there's this:

German police are planning to calm nerves among fans at this year's FIFA World Cup™ by using officers specially trained in pub-speak to communicate through megaphones.

The authorities in Frankfurt are piloting a scheme where officers explain to fans over a loudspeaker what the police are doing, putting them at ease using colloquial language and humour, albeit mostly in German.

Because there's nothing more nerve-calming than the sound of a German police officer yelling jokes over a megaphone.

Cannon fodder

It seems to me that there's a pretty obvious flaw with Germany's plan to build confidence by staging a pre-Cup friendly against one of their diminuitive neighbors: Liechtenstein/Luxembourg might win.

Seriously. Liechtenstein drew Portugal in qualifying, and after they were two goals down to boot. And what opponent wouldn't be up for humiliating the Germans immediately prior to the World Cup?

I think the logic behind this is terrible: either you score a meaningless large victory against a minnow, or you end up with disappointment and/or humiliation. It's a no-win situation.

In other hot match-scheduling action, the US have arranged a closed-door scrimmage with Angola immediately prior to the tournament. Last time round in 2002, the US did the German plan and played a pre-Cup scrimmage against cannon fodder. The victims in question were US second division team Richmond Kickers, who, somewhat hilariously, managed to tie the US 2-2, (see? It can happen.) causing waves of apoplectic panic among US supporters. Bearing in mind it all turned out fine for the US in the end, I guess it all goes to show that you shouldn't take this kind of thing too seriously. (Although I can't help but notice in the Richmond-US match report that it was Jeff Agoos who got beat on one of Richmond's goals, which in hindsight was a definite precursor of his performance in Korea.)

Friday, March 24, 2006

Miscellaneous stuff

World Cup build-up news is pretty sparse today. Here are the highlights, such as they are:
  • Wayne Rooney says he won't touch the World Cup trophy on the FIFA promotional tour, lest it jinx his chances of actually lifting the thing for real this summer. He also reveals that he used to pretend he was Michael Owen when he played football on the playgrounds as a child. England fans probably wish that Michael Owen would every so often pretend he was Wayne Rooney .
  • Mexico prepares for next week's friendly against Paraguay. They've recalled Claudio Suarez, but not soccer's most loveable hunchback.
  • Serbian coach Ilija Petkovic is "quite sure" they will emerge from the Group of Death with Argentina, Holland and Cote d'Ivoire. Good luck with that.

Club vs country

There's a legal brouhaha going on right now in Europe that has implications for the future of international soccer. The Belgian team Charleroi is suing FIFA for compensation after one of their players picked up an eight month injury while on international duty. Charleroi are being backed by the G-14, the informal, yet odious, grouping of the richest fourteen European teams.

Phil Cornwall is dead right when he says this is another example of the G-14's greed, but I don't see how, legally speaking, FIFA could be held monetarily responsible, since they weren't the group that actually called up the player. (They aren't suing the Moroccan federation because the G-14 think this would be useless as a precedent, since many national federations wouldn't be able to afford compensation.)

It's a time for saner heads to prevail. Which makes it a great shame that the issue is being decided by EU courts....

Thursday, March 23, 2006

Dortmund aftermath

Arena says all the right things in his post-Dortmund hangover. Taking the responsibility for the loss is the right thing to do; too many of the immediate post-match comments from himself and especially Kasey Keller blame the players. Now he's more temperate.

Definitely allocate blame, but do it internally; I'm a great believer in winning and losing as a team, even when the purpose of the match itself is to evaluate individual players.

He says something very interesting in the article:

"We're getting really close [to the May 15th squad deadline]," he said. "The last three spots are going to be difficult to decide on."

Apparently there are three open roster spots. Here's my guess about the twenty who are on:

Goalkeepers: Keller, Howard, Hahnemann
Defenders: Oneywu, Cherundolo, Pope, Bocanegra, Berhalter, Lewis
Midfielders: Reyna, Donovan, Beasley, Mastroeni, Convey, Dempsey, either O'Brien or Zavagnin
Forwards: McBride, Johnson, Twellman, Wolff

Yes, I think Berhalter is still on the squad, in spite of the Germany debacle; Wednesday notwithstanding, he's generally very consistent.

Of those three remaining players I think you want:
  • One center back who can play outside.
  • One defensive flank player who can attack.
  • One utility player, someone who could be used in a variety of roles.
Who are the candidates? For each category...
  • Conrad, Gibbs, or Spector. Conrad was in front before this match, now I'd say it's an open question.
  • Hejduk, Dunivant, or Albright maybe. Hejduk is probably in front here because of his experience and versatility.
  • Hard to say. Maybe Hejduk if he doesn't make the second category. Perhaps Ralston or Olsen. I think Olsen's ability to play center mid, flanker or right back puts him in a good position. Klein probably is out at this point.
Injuries will probably play a role here when all is said and done, as will club form. But one of the goals of the Jamaica match should be to get some answers about those last three spots.

In my opinion, the strikers are pretty much set: McBride, Johnson, Twellman and Wolff are unquestionably the best four available. If one of them is injured, it's an open question, one that might be decided by MLS early season form.

A return to normalcy

... was what Warren Harding promised after a past American adventure in Europe, and that's what we seem to have now after ours. Germany swept aside the US 4-1 in Dortmund yesterday, restoring both the natural order of football, and some sense of German optimism. (Nice headline there by the way, Merrill.)

Here are Wagman's always generous ratings, Sams-Army's, and Kicker's.

I won't be able to watch the match until the weekend, so I can't yet fully comment. But it seems like the central defense had a really rough day, particularly Berhalter. I don't think that Arena will bring down the axe on Berhalter or Conrad because of one half, but it can't have helped them either. Conrad's main competitor for a roster spot is probably Cory Gibbs, who didn't seem to have the greatest game either, but he was played a bit out of position on the left. Klein and Ching surely didn't help themselves either. It seems like the best US player was Convey, followed by Mastroeni and/or Johnson.

I'd caution against hyperbolic overreaction to this result. It wasn't pretty but it was, given the circumstances of the match, always on the cards. I'll write something fuller on this when I watch the match later.

On the other side of the pitch, of course things are peachy. Even the German press seems happy.

Wednesday, March 22, 2006

The patience of JO'B

Earlier this week, Yanks Abroad posted a report that perpetually injured American midfielder John O'Brien is fully fit and about to make the move to MLS. It also speculates about his World Cup aspirations:

The Los Angeles native is also physically ready to be named to Bruce Arena's World Cup 2006 squad on May 15th.

"He's completely fit," agent Rob Jansen told YA. "Of course (he can be called), there are no problems with that."

O'Brien coming to MLS is a good career move I think, and a major bonus for the team who lands him. But the man's played, what maybe ten competitive matches in the last two years? Arena wants to bring him, but there's no way he's going to waste a roster spot on a player who isn't proven match fit.

I'd say that O'Brien's roster chances at the moment are extremely doubtful, unless he signs in the next week or so and then plays some full MLS games. Time is very definitely not on his side.

Pressure

I agree with just about everything in Michael Lewis's US-Germany preview except Soccernet's description of it:

As the U.S. prepares to face Germany in today's World Cup warmup, the pressure is on coach Bruce Arena to get the most out of his team, writes Michael Lewis.

Soccernet needs a better blurb writer, because that's not even slightly what the article's about. But more to the point, that statement just isn't true. Coaching a team missing several starters, and playing the host nation in front of a huge crowd, Arena's under absolutely no pressure at all. He'll be pleased with an organized, gritty performance regardless of the result. 0-0 would be a great scoreline for the USA, but a disaster for Germany, and once that would increase the very real pressure on Jurgen Klinsmann.

Tuesday, March 21, 2006

US pre-cup friendly schedule

Something I missed while I was out... the USSF announced three pre-World Cup friendlies: against Morocco, Venezuela, and Latvia.

Er... these are three quality opponents who will test... oh who am I kidding? These three are essentially minnows; only Morocco even came close to qualifying for the Cup.

The problem here is one of getting quality opponents to come to America on the eve of a tournament in Europe. In 2002, with all teams needing to fly to the Far East, scheduling friendlies was no problem. But you don't want to fly your squad over to Europe in mid-May, bring them home, and fly them all the way back again in a few weeks. And likewise, European teams preparing for the Cup are not going to want to come here. So it is understandable that this is the best we can do, but still... I would have liked at least one marquee match in the build-up.

Monday, March 20, 2006

US-Germany preview

Wednesday's only friendly match pits the host nation against the US. Their comparative FIFA rankings are pretty funny: the US is 5th while three time world champion Germany is... 22nd?!

Okay, but that's just so much FIFA bologna, I hear you cry. (I tried to come up with a German sausage equivalent, but "knockwurst" doesn't really work. "Braunschweiger" perhaps?) Obviously Germany is the favorite. But here's the point: based on the results themselves, 22nd is frankly about right. Germany haven't beaten a major team in many years, and haven't always do so well against the non-major ones. And following that 4-1 whooping they received two weeks ago, things have reached a crisis point.

Let me just emphasize the point for those readers who aren't familiar with international soccer. There's always pressure on a World Cup team, but for the hosts, there is that much more. If you're the host of the tournament, you have to make a show of it, lest you face total international ridicule and national shame. In the history of the World Cup, every host nation has made it to the second round, no matter how feeble they seemed before the tournament. Switzerland made it in 54. The US did in 94. South Korea and Japan both made it in 2002. And although the Germans have a pretty straightforward group, it's not a complete cakewalk. Increasingly German fans are feeling that they might not make it out of even Group A. They are in desperate need of some... any... kind of confidence boost.

In short, this is the biggest game Germany have played since Euro 2004 and they will be very highly motivated. I'm expecting the same heavy German victory their fans are. Any kind of result for the Americans would be a fantastic one.

The plus side of all that is that the US is under virtually no pressure for this game. They only have something of a makeshift side available, having lost Donovan and Hejduk to injury and Dempsey to a severe case of punchiness; plus they are missing a lot of European players who didn't get a club release. Some points of interest:

  • It's really the last chance for Cory Gibbs to make a case for being on the Cup squad. Personally I think the odds are against him; he may be fully fit, but he hasn't even played a match at the full club level yet for ADO Den Haag. Will he really be ready to face a motivated German attack? It might be a no-win situation for him: being left on the bench won't help him but playing probably won't help either. He needs to have a blinder. Same goes for Heath Pearce, by the way.
  • Probably a central midfield of Mastroeni and Zavagnin. In another situation, you might want to have a more offensive player in there, but under the circumstances, I think it's a good idea. It'll be left to Klein and particularly Convey to link to the attack. This is a good opportunity for Convey to make a bid for a starting position. It'd be nice to see Olsen get a chance as well.
  • I'd like to see Johnson and Twellman as the starting strikers. There will be very few chances, so whoever starts cannot afford to be profligate with them.

As for the German team news, it goes from bad to worse. Sebastian Deisler has been ruled out of the World Cup with a knee injury, and Torsten Frings and Mike Hanke both picked up injuries in Bundesliga play this weekend. Bayer Leverkusen castoff and life of the party Oliver Neuville (who, by the way, is the dead ringer of Lister's Paranoia on Red Dwarf) is the replacement for... well, all of them, I guess.

P.S. Frank Dell'Apa makes, as usual, an interesting point: one of the many intriguing subtexts of this game is that Jurgen Klinsmann is a natural choice as the manager of the United States sometime in the not too distant future, perhaps even after this World Cup. Top flight international experience, yet familiarity with the American game... you know, he might not be a bad choice.

Fight Club

I totally missed the big US soccer story this last week (and it was on my American Soccer News beat, no less): Clint Dempsey was suspended for two weeks by the New England Revolution for fulfilling many a MLS striker's dream and punching teammate Joey Franchino in the face. Apparently Dempsey was registering his objection to a typically full-blooded Franchino tackle during a practice session. Agreeing with the Revs, the US coaching staff dropped him from the squad for the Wednesday friendly.

So yeah... nice move, Clint. But this story should be over: Dempsey's a bright kid who knows that he had a stupid moment. Hopefully after a two week cooling off period and a round of apologies this will be in the past. And frankly, the two weeks off should be good for Dempsey, who's been playing a lot of soccer so far in 2006; this suspension might be a nice inoculation against summer burnout.

Un cadeau pour football!

Ate great food, visited beautiful museums, witnessed student riots and spotted a French film star to boot (well, kind of... Dominique Pinon, the man with the squashed face who is in all the Jean-Pierre Jeunet films.) What more could one ask for from a French vacation?

Football-wise I fell a bit out of touch, but I did watch the second half of last week's fantastic Arsenal-Liverpool match on French TV. Go ahead, see if you can guess who the French commentary team was pulling for.

There was much talk about Thierry Henry, whom one of the commentators wonderfully referred to as "un cadeau pour football" (a gift for football). They also emphasized a point that can't be repeated enough: for France to do well in the World Cup this summer, Henry must have a great tournament. He's never shined on that stage before: in 1998 he was a promising youngster on the subs bench, and in 2002 he, like the rest of the French team, flopped. Could 2006 be his year?

Friday, March 10, 2006

En vacances

Posting will be light to non-existent next week as I'm going to be on vacation in France. Have a great week!

Thursday, March 09, 2006

Math is hard!

Not much really to do with soccer this, but initially I found Steve Fainaru's befuddlement over the World Baseball Classic's group stage tiebreaker... befuddling. When three teams are tied in a four team group, the teams that progress into the knockout stage are the ones that allow the least runs per inning against the other tied teams. What's so bewildering about that?

But it's worth remembering that each sport has different mathematical discourses. Soccer fans are thoroughly comfortable with sorting out ties based on scores, but those who aren't baseball fans probably find baseball's spreadsheet-like scoreboards and emphasis on percentages extremely impenetrable. Something as simple as the clock counting up instead of down throws a lot of new soccer watchers (hence MLS's initial decision to have a countdown.)

Incidentally, as a patriotic non-baseball fan, I found Canada's 8-6 victory over the US pretty damn funny.

The mob gathers

A couple of years ago, German defender Stefan Effenberg retired from professional football so that he could concentrate on his other full-time job: being an asshole. In that capacity today, he has told Bild that he thinks former teammate Jurgen Klinsmann should be fired as soon as possible:

"If I was in charge then I would get rid of Klinsmann right away and get Ottmar Hitzfeld in," Effenberg told Bild daily. "I would even suggest doing that before the United States game."

Needless to say, that would be pretty much bonkers. But with Franz Beckenbauer ominously muttering that "time is running out," it's fair to say that even if the lynch mob is not actually pounding on Klinsmann's door, they are down at the hardware store stocking up on torches and pitchforks.

All of which makes the forthcoming friendly against the US very interesting. Anything less than a victory against the Americans will bring the cries for Klinsmann's head to a fever pitch. And let's face it, realistically this will be difficult. The USA is unbeaten in 2006, confident, and, since they're playing a top nation at home, under very little pressure. We've done pretty well in friendlies against Germany in the not too distant past, and even in that game, the US was certainly the better team (if it had been a meaningless friendly instead of a World Cup quarter final, the Germans would have been slammed for that performance.) So tune in on Mar 22nd; it should be fun.

P.S. I realize that one of those "friendlies" I linked to was actually a Confederations Cup game. But... you know... the Cornfed Cup is pretty much still a meaningless tournament.

Tuesday, March 07, 2006

Deadlines

Aside from German disgruntlement, the big World Cup story this week has to do with the deadline for squad announcements. FIFA had previously mandated May 15th as the deadline for naming players to each country's World Cup squad. Recently, various influential coaches, including Sven-Goran Eriksson, Jurgen Klinsmann, and Carlos Alberto Parreira, have asked for an extension, saying they'll need the extra time: injuries may occur in May friendlies, players with injuries may recover faster than expected, etc.

The initial motivation for the FIFA ruling was to prevent the players from being burnt out, a factor that some say was a problem during the 2002 Word Cup. But really this is just another instance of Blatter and FIFA being too officious. Surely it should be the responsibility of the countries themselves to make sure their players aren't overly tired. If the squad is burnt out, it's their problem, not FIFA's. And really, as long as the squad remains the same (barring injury substitutions) after the tournament start date, it shouldn't matter if they name their team the day before or the month before.

Almost certainly, the individual countries are going to have their way in the debate, because they have all the power. What's Blatter going to do... kick Germany, England and Brazil out of the World Cup for naming their squads late?

Jimmy was a defender and he was always down

Let me just say that I think Jimmy Conrad's columns for Soccernet are incredibly smart and funny. And in the latest one, we learn that he's an Interpol fan! Now I want him to make the World Cup squad more than ever.

Auf deutsch: Charme

Am I the only one who finds the thought of a German "charm offensive" vaguely threatening?

It's hard out there for a pimp

Best, I thought, to get the subject line out the way right now, before it gets played out altogether. But what can I shoehorn in to this post to match it?

I could complain about how after I did all my weekend work, I messed up the recording and didn't get to watch the Wednesday games after all. But really, I can't complain because it was my fault, and anyway I'm guessing it's really harder to be Jurgen Klinsmann.

Jurgen's no pimp (one trusts), but he has had a rough week. After seeing his German team get mauled in their midweek friendly with Italy, there was talk of a government inquiry into his tactics. (That is to say, the government of the country, not the football federation.) Today it was announced that Klinsmann has the support of the Interior Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, although Schaeuble's remark that he doesn't "see any point in changing horses in the middle of a race" hardly seems like a ringing endorsement.

Additionally, Klinsmann is being criticized by Franz Beckenbauer for not attending a World Cup coaches workshop. This workshops sounds to me like the international soccer equivalent of one of those pointless work meetings in which nothing important is said, so I can't blame him for going back to Cali, but Franz says it's a big deal.

A lot of the Klinsmann criticism has always come down to the fact that he basically telecommutes from California. This criticism seems silly to me; as long as he's watching the Bundesliga matches regularly, there's really no need to spend the whole time there, when the only thing there will be for him to do is to answer silly questions about meaningless friendlies. But bearing in mind how skittish the host nation is about their chances, maybe it would be politic for Klinsmann to work back in Germany more often.

But don't worry about your Cup chances, Germany! Like Baldrick, Klinsmann has a cunning plan....

UPDATE: It's not really relevant to his situation, but the Guardian gives us a fun glimpse into Klinsmann's political leanings: he drives a VW Beetle and votes for the Green party! An anti-Paolo di Canio, if you will.

Thursday, March 02, 2006

Lost in translation... or not

Check out the cover of this morning's Kicker magazine. Let's just say that I wasn't reaching for the babel fish to find out what they thought of Germany's performance. Their ratings of the German team are hilarious; three players get the "6" grade--a perfect failure.

The rest of the German press were hardly kinder.

Wednesday, March 01, 2006

Wednesday results

So the biggest result is undoubtedly coming out of the beautiful and artistic city of Florence, where host nation Germany received an artfully applied 4-1 smackdown at the hands of Italy. Offhand, I can't think of a World Cup host getting beaten quite so badly so close before the start of the finals. A day or two ago, I wondered about how the dropping of Christian Woerns might affect the Germans; apparently the answer is that they're going to concede a lot more goals. Surely the German press is cooking up a right roasting for Jurgen Klinsman even as I speak.

At least Germany was playing away from home against a world class opponent. That's more than can be said for France, who were beaten 2-1 by non-qualifiers Slovakia in the Stade de France, scene of their extraordinary triumph eight years ago. In my opinion, this result is much worse than the Germany-Italy match; I mean, a full France team gearing up for a major tournament should be able to dispose of a team like Slovakia quite easily. Instead, by all accounts, their performance sucked ass. A lesser manager might be having second thoughts about his player selection and tactics; however, Raymond Domenech is apparently made of sterner stuff.

But let us not dwell on the negative! The US triumphed 1-0 over Poland in a match played in a blizzard. An opportunistic Clint Dempsey goal won it for the Americans. I'll be posting fuller thoughts when I... er... watch it this weekend. Ditto on England's 2-1 triumph over the Uruk-hai.

Good days too for Croatia, who came back to beat Argentina 3-2 and Portugal, who easily sailed through Saudi Arabia. Brazil managed to emerge from Russia without any injuries or outbreaks of hypothermia. And Spain just edged a thriller against Cote d'Ivoire, who surely have served notice that they will be contesting Group C to the fullest.

Working class dog

So normally, what I would do with these friendlies is set the home recording equipment and watch them after work. Unfortunately, the circumstances of my employment right now involve me being away from home for the work week. And this weekend, I'll be attending a conference. So frustratingly, I won't be able to watch US-Poland, England-Uruguay, and Mexico-Ghana until Sunday. Sigh. I'll be posting my thoughts about those games then, and posting ill-informed opinions based on match reports until then.

It looks like the big story today will be the weather: it's freezing pretty much all over central and eastern Europe. And you have to wonder what was going on in the minds of the Brazilian federation when they agreed to play in Russia in March. It won't feel too much like Sao Paolo.